PIAA District III AAA Girls Cross Country Preview
2018 should be another exciting and competitive year of cross country in Central Pennsylvania. With the graduation of Abby Yourkavitch and Andrea Demko, 2 of the top 3 places at last year’s district meet are open. Last year’s runner-up, Emily Schuler from Dallastown is back and will be looking for gold. District III has 4 automatic team qualifying spots in AAA for the State Championships and another 20 individual qualifying spots for non-team qualifying individuals. Elizabethtown and Carlisle return the most from last year’s squads and should be considered favorites to win the team title at Big Spring on October 27th. Dallastown, Manheim Township, Hershey, Hempfield, and Chambersburg should also be in the mix.
We will start by looking at the runners who will be returning for the schools finishing in the top 10 at districts last year. We will also be providing the finishing rank for those runners after removing graduates from 2017s race.
Manheim Township
2017 District Finish: 1st
Returns: 3 of top 7 from 2017 PIAA District 3 AAA Girls Championships
District 3 returning rank
Ava Pascewicz #10
Annabelle Lapp #11
Chloe Kline #23
Notes: The Manheim Township girls lose a lot from last year’s team that finished runner-up at the PIAA championships. In fact, three of their graduated Seniors are competing in college (Cassandra Wilk – Lafayette; Sam Side – Delaware; Kira Jenkins – South Carolina). If their #4 and #5 runners can place in the top 70 at the district meet they could be state bound again.
Dallastown
2017 District Finish: 2nd
Returns: 4 of top 7 from 2017 PIAA District 3 AAA Girls Championships
District 3 returning rank
Emily Schuler #1
Helen Zardus #17
Allison Myers #24
Carly Gable #25
Notes: Dallastown returns 4 potential medal winners for district’s this year, including last year’s runner-up, Emily Schuler. Schuler had an impressive Spring track and field season as well. She finished 10th in the 3200m at the state meet, improving from her 15th place finish as a Freshman.
Hershey
2017 District Finish: 3rd
Returns: 4 of top 7 from 2017 PIAA District 3 AAA Girls Championships
District 3 returning rank
Faith Mark #18
Katie Jones #28
Olivia Wilson #47
Katie Ceneviva #89
Notes: Hershey loses last year’s 3rd place district finisher in Andrea Demko (now running for Penn State University). Without a returning top 10 runner, Hershey will hope for a tight pack of finishers. The top 7 teams from last year’s race all had at least one runner place inside the top 10. Since 2015, Hershey has not finished worst than 7th. Expect them to finish within the top 7 again this year.
Chambersburg
2017 District Finish: 4th
Returns: 3 of top 7 from 2017 PIAA District 3 AAA Girls Championships
District 3 returning rank
Keira Whitehead #11
Maddie Kinton #49
Anna DeGrange #57
Notes: The Trojans will be without last year’s District Champion, Abby Yourkavitch (now running for East Carolina Univ). Like Manheim Township, only 3 of their top 7 runners return. Unlike Manheim Township, only one returner’s finish from last year places them in the top 25 this year. To replicate last year’s accomplishments, the Trojans will need a couple of newcomers to join Kinton and DeGrange in forming a tight pack.
Elizabethtown
2017 District Finish: 5th
Returns: 7 of top 7 from 2017 PIAA District 3 AAA Girls Championships
District 3 returning rank
Cat Shontz #4
Madeline Quinn #9
Katie Locker #20
Katie Weissend #21
Malayna Van Winkle #91
Camille Donahue #139
Brooke Nicodemus #157
Notes: Elizabethtown is in great position to earn one of the 4 team state qualifying berths. They return 4 runners that will challenge for district medals, matching Dallastown in this regard. Katie Locker had the best Spring, finishing 7th in the 1600m at the state meet. She also won district Gold in the 800m. Elizabethtown will likely compete with Dallastown and Carlisle for the district title.
Governor Mifflin
2017 District Finish: 6th
Returns:
District 3 returning rank
Andrea Miller #2
Kira Angstadt #43
Kallan Carter #66
Olivia Hill #72
Krystalyn Super #86
Notes: For Governor Mifflin to improve upon their 6th place finish last year, they will need the pack behind Miller to move up. A top ten finish is once again likely, the pack and any newcomers will dictate if the team can improve upon their 2017 result.
Carlisle
2017 District Finish: 7th
Returns: 6 of top 7 from 2017 PIAA District 3 AAA Girls Championships
District 3 returning rank
Meg Lebo #8
Gracen Cabral #14
Sophia Toti #16
Mira Benson #65
Gretal Shank #72
Alyssa Dyson #76
Notes: Carlisle returns most of their team from last year, and with 3 returners in the top 20 they seem poised to contend for a team title. Carlisle may also have a couple of rising Freshman that could contribute this year following successful Junior High performances at the Ben Bloser Invite and Carlisle Meet of Champions.
Hempfield
2017 District Finish: 8th
Returns: 5 of top 7 from 2017 PIAA District 3 AAA Girls Championships
District 3 returning rank
Gabriella Hollinger #29
Ella Kielmeyer #31
Bronwyn Meldrum #39
Lily Williams #48
Hannah Graybill #98
Notes: Hempfield has depth, but will likely need to find another top 50 finisher to challenge for one of the four state qualifying positions.
Ephrata
2017 District Finish: 9th
Returns: 5 of top 7 from 2017 PIAA District 3 AAA Girls Championships
District 3 returning rank
Mary Campbell #6
Alyssa Federshok #7
Sierra Zimmerman #110
Elizabeth Martin #139
Kelly Cummings #140
Notes: May have the best 1-2 punch in all of District 3. Depth behind Campbell and Federshok will need to have developed further for Ephrata to compete with the top teams this year. Will challenge for a top 10 finish again in 2018.
J.P. McCaskey
2017 District Finish: 10th
Returns: 1 of top 7 from 2017 PIAA District 3 AAA Girls Championships
District 3 returning rank
Arielle Breuninger #34
Notes: Looks to be a rebuilding year for the Tornado. They lose more out of their top 7 than anyone else from last year’s top 10 teams. The bright spot could come from Arielle Breuninger, only a Sophomore, who should battle for a top 25 finish. She finished 14th in the LL League 3200m final last Spring.
Daniel Boone
2017 District Finish: 11th
Returns: 5 of top 7 from 2017 PIAA District 3 AAA Girls Championships
District 3 returning rank
Vivian Kase #34
Carlina Davis #55
SIerra Rivera #60
Abby Bulafka #62
Ashley Benoit #68
Notes: Return their top 5 runners from last years 11th place team. Like Palmyra on the boys side, the Daniel Boone girls seemed prime for success beyond 2018. None of their top 5 returners from last year will be seniors in 2018. A top 10 finish this year will position them well for a state berth in 2019.
2018 Forecast
Since the PIAA expanded to 3 divisions for cross country in 2015, the 4th and final qualifying team for the state meet scored 181-189-194 points respectively between 2015-2017. Based on those runners returning in 2018, and simulating performance off of their returning district finishing rank, who should be able to score 190 points or less?
Of schools returning at least 5 runners, only 2 have combined scores less than 190. Elizabethtown returns 5 runners whose combined score = 145
Carlisle returns 5 runners whose combined score = 175
Of schools returning at least 4 runners, only one team seems likely to score less than 190.
Dallastown returns 4 runners whose combined score = 67. As long as their #5 runner finishes better than 123rd they will score less than 190 points.
Of schools returning at least 3 runners, only 1 team seems capable of scoring less than 190.
Manheim Township returns 3 runners whose combined score = 44. As long as their #4 and #5 runners average to place 73rd or better, they will score less than 190 points.
Newcomers will have an impact on overall results. Undoubtably, a few Freshman will introduce themselves to the field that could change the outcomes of the team race. Last year, 5 Freshman placed in the top 25 at the district meet. 10 Freshman finished in the top 50. It also always seems as though a few individuals will change sports, like moving from soccer to XC, and they too could factor into overall outcomes.
The beginning of the season is always exciting as teams introduce their 2018 squads to competitors. In Central Pennsylvania, the early season meets I am most looking forward to are PTXC10 at Kutztown on 9/8 and the Ben Bloser Invite at Big Spring on 9/15.
Good luck to everyone in 2018! Let’s go!!!!!
Pre-Season Top 4 (in alphabetical order): Carlisle, Dallastown, Elizabethtown, Manheim Township.